Epistemic Spot Check Scaling Experiment

Tl;dr: would you like to exchange money for an extra-rigorous epistemic spot check or automating me out of a hobby? I have an opportunity for you.

Most of you reading this probably know the epistemic spot check series on this blog, in which I somewhat-arbitrarily check claims early in a book to calibrate my trust level in said book.

I’ve been approached by a pre-public prediction market org to see if we can scale ESCs using a forecasting tournament. As conceived of right now, I would extract claims from a book and put them in the tournament, where anyone could bet on how I would eventually rule on the claim. I then check a subset of the claims (the others resolve as “ambiguous”) and money is distributed to the winners. In order to standardize things, this will be done with more rigor and consistency than is usually seen in epistemic spot checks.

We currently have prize money to distribute to the winners, but not to cover my time. We’re looking for $1,000-$2,000 depending on the book and any particular requests you have. If you’re feeling generous, more prize money would not hurt either.

If you’re at all interested, e-mail me at elizabeth – at – this- domain and we can chat.