When I did the original math I felt a little pang that I didn’t check the source of the 1o minutes of exercise = 1 microlife value, but the result was so overwhelming it didn’t matter. When I added in the time to travel and actually exercise it became a much closer thing, so the error bars on that estimate began to matter. Thanks to reader Steve B. I was able to access the appendix of the microlife article that provided sources for the value of exercise, which turns out to be these two papers.
Both papers are strictly correlational (average exercise per week vs. lifespan), making no attempt to correct for the fact that healthier people will find it easier to exercise and are more likely to do other life-extending things. Exercise was determined by self report, and it looks like those microlifes come from a reduced chance of dying during the study, rather than being tacked on to the end of your life.
There’s a lot of evidence that exercise reduces various markers and effects change associated with a longer life, so I’m pretty sure it’s still good, but I no longer have any faith in this particular number.
Last week I did some math on the risk/reward profile of exercising indoors (risking covid exposure) vs. outdoors (risking exposure to smoke from the CA fires), and found the numbers for the day I did the math (low-for-fire-season pollution outside, sparsely populated indoor gym) overwhelmingly favored exercise of any kind over not exercising, and any other factor was overwhelmed by how likely it was to create friction to exercising.
Over on Facebook, a friend pointed out that I’d left out the biggest cost of exercise: the time in which it took place. I then realized a full accounting would also include the time to get to the gym and the risk of getting hit by a car en route. And was I sure the micromort estimate for exercise incorporated the risk of injury? (no, because the data is hidden in an appendix BJM paywalled and sci-hub doesn’t have. If you have BJM access and would like to help me out by emailing me (firstname.lastname@example.org) the appendix for this article it would be much appreciated. EDIT: received and responded to. Thanks Steve!). But exercise has benefits beyond dying later, and I wasn’t fully accounting for any of those either. And time spent at or traveling to work out isn’t exactly lost: zipping around on my scooter is fun, and leaving my house regularly on some sort of schedule has been good for me. This gets unwieldy really quickly.
Nonetheless, time spent traveling and the accompanying risk of car accidents seemed really significant, so I updated the spreadsheet to incorporate it. Ignoring any positive effects beyond the microlives, this was enough to make going to my gym for cardio net costly (note: because the spreadsheet measures in micromorts a positive number is bad), although going to the gym for weights and my nearby friend’s backyard for cardio still come out ahead.
I still think gym cardio is net beneficial for me because I think my exercise is much more impactful than average. But I don’t think it’s so much more beneficial than my friend’s backyard treadmill, so I’m going to emphasize the latter except on very bad smoke days.
Update 9/2: A friend pointed out that I was ignoring the time costs of exercise, which ended up being pretty significant. See new numbers here. I then double checked the math on the microlife numbers and the news is not good.
Tl;dr: under my current conditions, outdoor exercise is slightly safer than indoor for me, but the risks of both are dwarfed by the benefits of exercise.
Recently I’ve been weighing trade offs around exercise. At the gym I’m risking covid exposure. I can reduce that by wearing a mask, at the cost of making the exercise less effective or enjoyable. I could use my friend’s outdoor gym, but it’s fire season here in California so there are prolonged periods where I don’t want to be sucking in all that unfiltered air. This is also addressable with a mask, but at the same cost. I could exercise indoors in my own home, but I do not have that much space and it gets miserable really fast. I could not exercise until conditions improve, but that has its own health costs. So I did some math.
Wikipedia says 10 minutes of exercise = 1 micromort lost (as in, you live longer). That’s obviously going to depend a lot on the type of exercise but we’ll use it.
This calculator translates time * AQI into cigarette equivalents. At 50 AQI, it takes 12 minutes to generate .01 cigarettes. I’m going to treat that as 10 minutes because exercising is slightly worse than merely existing out doors and it makes the math much easier.
Wikipedia lists an equivalent of 1.4 cigarettes = 1 micromort.
N95 masks block 95% of PM2.5 particles (which is what the AQI is based on). I couldn’t immediately find a translation of that to micromorts so let’s assume it’s linear discounting. EDIT: On Twitter Divia Eden points out that 95% assumes a perfect seal, which you probably don’t have. This isn’t material at my current air quality; I did this whole thing without including masks at all and then added them in afterwords, but when you do your own math you should include that.
That means that 10 minutes unmasked outdoor cardio, at 50 AQI = .01/1.4 = .007 micromorts, which is clearly dwarfed by the 1 micromort lost from exercise (even if you assume it’s 10x worse for me due to the existing chest congestion, and don’t give the exercise a corresponding impact bump). If I wear a mask the risk is probably below the significant figures I’m allowed. It’s so negligible compared to the benefits that if allowing myself to go outside increases total exercise by any amount at all, it’s obviously worth it.
How about covid risk?
My gym is personal training focused with a single cardio machine, which you must schedule in advance. If I’m doing cardio there will be at most two clients doing weight training and two trainers in the room, plus me, all > 10 feet away, in a large room with filtration they claim is good. If I’m doing weight training there’s me, my trainer (fairly nearby), and potentially a farther away client and trainer pair. In theory there could be an additional person on the cardio machine but I’ve yet to see it happen.
Under an excessively conservative set of assumptions (City-average vaccination, no mask, constant talking), my cardio scenario is 7 microcovids. If I give everyone masks it’s 0.5. My weight training scenario is <=10 microcovids (7 for the other pair, which may or may not exist, and 3 for my trainer. Note that weight training is 2.5x as long as cardio). But microcovids are not micromorts. The Economist calculator (pre-delta, pre-vaccine) has the risk of dying of acute covid at my age and sex as immeasurably low, despite it being prone to overestimate because its denominator is only diagnosed cases. Long covid is a concern (although I’ve tentatively concluded its overblown: more on that soon hopefully), but lack of exercise is bad for long covid in particular. If we generously use my age/sex hospitalization rate as the discount factor (2.6%), the micromorts from my indoor cardio are <=0.16, and my weight training is <=0.23. These are not quite as negligible as the pollution, but still very safely under the benefits of exercising.
Some caveats: I didn’t examine any of these numbers that closely because the verdict was so overwhelmingly clear; the values would need to be off by orders of magnitude to change my conclusion. But that is always an option, and when I tried to follow up on the 0.1 micromort/minute of exercise number, I hit a dead end.
I’ve made a very crude spreadsheet with sources linked in comments so you can make a copy and play around with your own numbers, based on your local air quality, covid prevalence, etc.